8/30/2006 10:37:00 PM|W|P|Bob Hall|W|P|Computers playing chess is almost completely worthless. Looking at a chess board reveals all of the relevant information; it is only a matter of computational ability and memory to deduce a single best solution. Cards are a much more fertile area for computer scientists. Any individual or computer given 100% data that is guaranteed 100% correct and not questioned can make a rational and correct decision. In the real world we are lucky to have 70% of the data of which 65% is certain and 40% conflicts with our initial analysis (I made those numbers up). I point this out because our modern forecast techniques rely heavily on models that have a myopic and very limited view of the chess board. The models grid up the world just like a chess board, but imagine if the computer only had data from six random spots on the grid and then had to guess at the rest of it. I get tired of hearing people complain about unrealized weather forecasts. Ernesto was a dud, John an amazing Cat 4 stallion over Baja. Both had different pedigrees based on the models. Meteorologists have a duty to warn responsibly and the citizenry has a responsibility to assess said warnings and act to the best of their ability. Both Rita and Ernesto where warned and appropriate evacuations occurred. I’m sure that many who bugged out were pissed when little became of these storms. Unlike many of the terror warnings, these and future storms are real and a harbinger great destruction. The storms unlike terror plots can’t be manipulated by politicians. -Brownie you’re doing a good job…|W|P|115699554852834211|W|P|Perfect Information|W|P|ChaseHelp@gmail.com8/28/2006 09:57:00 PM|W|P|Bob Hall|W|P|On the one year anniversary of Katrina media outlets have hyped Ernesto into a major hurricane. NASA managers are stuck with a tough decision. What to do with Atlantis? Post Challenger flight rules require exacting daylight launches. There are very few launch windows that exist. The current window runs between August 27 and September 3 in deference to our Russian partners who plan to launch September 18th. In the last 2-½ hours Ernesto has committed suicide like so many a Guantanamo, Cuba guest of the US has contemplated. On Monday NASA made the semi-bold call not to roll-back until the last moment on Tuesday. A roll-back costs at least 11 days in the real world (8 in the project plan). If we don’t launch in September, we have only a couple of 2 day windows for the rest of the year. We very seldomly hit a 4 or 5 day window. The mettle will be proven if shuttle is allowed to stay on the pad a “suffer” “fierce” 38 mph winds. The design spec called for 89 mph. I'm guessong NASA will take the Guantanamo option and compromise everything to avoid a small risk.|W|P|115682054491331405|W|P|Really good and bad calls|W|P|ChaseHelp@gmail.com